Seeing What's Next

(Sept. - Oct. 2004  | Vol 2 | Number 5 )

 

Are you reading the right signals?

 

How to see what's next:

 

1. Look for signals of change.

    - Signs of undershot customers ("lead" customers)

    - Signs of overshot customers

    - Signs of nonconsumption

    ............> pay careful attention to the lease demanding, most overshotcustomers and nonconsumers seemingly on the fringe of the market

 

2. Analyze compettive battles to see which firms are likely to emerge triumphant.

    - Taking the tale of the tape

    - Look for the company with asymetries on its side

 

3. Evaluate strategic choices that can help to determine ultimate winners and losers.

    - See whether the company is following a preparation regimen that facilitates it finding a disruptive path.

    - Check to see how entrants are choosing value network participants such as suppliers, distributors, and ancillary partners.

    - Look to see whether incumbents have earned their distuptive balck belts by developing the capability to capitalize on disruptive trends.